Subseasonal and seasonal forecasting focussing on the ECMWF model performance

Date: Tuesday 3 March 2020

Time: 19:00 - 20:30

Location: 

University of Reading
Meteorology GU01
Reading, Berks RG6 6BB

Email: 

southeast@rmets.org

SPEAKER| Laura Ferranti - ECMWF

ABSTRACT| Currently seasonal forecasting is a corner-stone of climate services. Sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions act as a bridge between weather and climate. Sub-seasonal forecasting, originally a spin-off from seasonal forecasting, it is a key building block of the seamless forecasting strategy, with clear prospects for useful skill gains at week 3 and 4. Although the predictable processes and predictability drivers differ between the sub-seasonal and seasonal scales, prediction at these time ranges is a combination of the initial and boundary value problems. This talk reviews our understanding of the predictability at these time scales and discusses the current forecasting capabilities with an overview of the forecast performance for the recent season.